Archive for the ‘Musings’ Category

When Global Goes Local: hitch-hiking for the networked generation

Friday, August 10th, 2007

Nowadays, it’s becoming quite rare to see a hitch-hiker. I’m sure there are many reasons for the death of hitch-hiking, but I suggest that these are the top three:

  • trust (for both parties): it seems that we are becoming increasingly distrustful of our fellow citizens, and especially of strange-looking people who stand by the roadside. Sharing a car requires a fair amount of trust in your passengers.
  • lack of incentive for the driver: a good friend of mine (who is quite active in Christian groups) shocked me somewhat by admitting that when he sees a hitch-hiker, he thinks “get a job and get your own car, you freeloader”. Whilst not everyone is so selfish, many people won’t give up their comfortable solitude without a reason.
  • more comfortable alternatives for the passenger: many people in our developed societies are rich in enough to run a car, or at least afford the occasional taxi. Why stand in the rain waiting for some kind soul to take pity on you?

For a regular commute, car-sharing with colleagues doesn’t pose these problems. But for those who work flexi-time, and for all other journeys not covered by good public transport, driving your own car is often the only practical option. The effect is obvious, with UK traffic estimated to grow by 26% on 2000 levels. By that point, congestion is predicted to have grown 65% overall (from 1996) and motorway congestion by a whopping 268%. (source)

But we have the technology to solve these problems and make ad-hoc carsharing a viable alternative to driving solo – especially if you factor in a bit of ecological guilt and fuel price increases.

  • trust: as eBay has shown, many people are prepared to make risky financial transactions with complete strangers, so long as they can see the seller’s past history. A similarly simple reputation system could work here, too.
  • driver’s incentive: many lone drivers might take trustworthy passengers just for company or to alleviate their eco-guilt, but others could be tempted by a bit of petrol-money. Or if they’re too proud for that, perhaps they could request a donation to their favourite charity instead.
  • passenger comfort:no need to wait in the rain, you can be notified by SMS when your ride is approaching.

By integrating transport “offers” from mini-cabs, shared taxis and public transport, a joined-up transport service emerges that could really compete with the car on both price and convenience.

When Global Goes Local: the death of the super-mall

Wednesday, August 8th, 2007

It’s a symbol of America, and it’s a concept that’s spreading across the world – the out of town shopping centre. Built on cheap land on the edge of a city, these retail metropolises offer almost every product under the sun at low, low prices. Ample free parking is provided and there’s enough retail therapy within its confines to keep even the most addicted spendaholic happy.

The disadvantage, of course, is that you really have to drive there. Perhaps it’s technically possible to get there on public transport somehow, but it’s hardly convenient. And then when you got there, you could only buy as much as you can carry, making the journey hardly worth the effort. Most people will drive and then fill up with enough food and supplies to last them several weeks. Of course, if your food has to last for such a long time, frozen or tinned is really the only option. As well as being less tasty and lacking in micronutrients compared to fresh alternatives, a significant amount of energy is invested in keeping food frozen from farm to plate.

The biggest advantage of traveling to a big store or retail park is that you can be fairly confident that they’ll have what you want. In a couple of hours, you’ll have filled your freezer and can merrily tick “shopping” off your to-do list. But present-day technology has the power to change that process, giving you fresher food and reducing your carbon footprint.

Imagine that instead of anticipating your needs weeks in advance, you were instead able to browse through a selection of recipes selected by a combination of your tastes, your culinary experience, the contents of your fridge and what’s currently available in your local shops. On your way home, you stop by a couple of smaller stores (guided by your mobile phone), where you pick up your pre-bagged shopping. By ordering in advance, you help the store manage their stock more efficiently. Easy access to real-time information has allowed you to change the way you shop – in a way that’s better for you and for the environment.

In my next post, I’ll talk about how more efficient and flexible logistics can reduce the cost of deliveries of your more exotic culinary requirements and other items, and how better information can make shared transport an attractive choice.

When Global Goes Local: how ubiquitous connectivity and peak oil will challenge economies of scale

Monday, August 6th, 2007

We live in a society powered by fossil fuel. Almost everything we do consumes large amounts of non-renewable energy, because our cities, our industries and our lives are designed to do so. That’s bad news, because energy is becoming more scarce and therefore more expensive. At the same time, concerns about climate change are likely to cause the introduction of carbon taxes, pushing energy costs even higher.

But there’s good news, too: we can solve it. Not just through alternative energy sources and more efficient devices – they will play a big role, but they aren’t the whole solution. We need to change how we live, and go back to what some call the “urban village” – urban lifestyles that don’t involve travelling large distances. At the same time, we can even use this social upheaval as an opportunity to solve some of the problems that plague our modern cities:

  • traffic noise
  • social isolation
  • ineffective transportation
  • declining food quality
  • throw-away culture

Over the next few days, I’ll be publishing a series of short posts exploring how communications technologies can change the way we travel, shop, work and socialise. I’ll show that in this process, we’ll not only save our planet, but also make our cities nicer and more exciting places to live.

Positive Purchasing Power

Thursday, July 12th, 2007

Sometimes I feel like this guy – a little frustrated. Whilst the non-believers he’s attacking are basically a lunatic fringe, I think there’s a large majority who agree that climate change is a problem but are too concerned with their own lives to find out how they can help solve it. They’re not active non-believers – but people who just don’t believe they need to do anything about it. It will be solved by the technologists, the politicians and the corporations.

To some extent, they might be right – but at the end of the day, it’s every one of us who makes decisions that dictate what these groups do. Even if it might not feel like it sometimes, they’re all servants of the people and their salary comes out of your pocket every time you purchase something or pay your taxes. Happily, green is fast becoming the new black in some parts of the world and politicians and businesses alike have started battling with each other over their eco-credentials.

The trouble is that most people trust neither what politicians nor multinational corporations tell us, and don’t have the time to figure out whether they are making empty promises or are really making a difference. Occasionally, environmental organisations will expose the worst offenders or produce a ranking for a particular product type. But who goes to the bother of seeking out these reports? I know I don’t.

Perhaps the solution lies in giving consumers a trivially-easy way to check the “green-ness” of the products they are considering purchasing and allow them to make an informed, environmentally-aware purchasing decision. These ratings could be produced by a community process, amongst those concerned enough to spend the time to research and compare several competing manufacturers. The resulting eco-friendliness score could even be embedded into online shops, so that every customer can shop with a clear conscience.

The internet gives us such huge power to easily cross-reference information that few of us now make any significant purchase without checking a few product reviews first. Isn’t it time that we started using that same power to encourage companies to stop bullshitting us and really “go green”?

Designing for ignorability

Friday, June 1st, 2007

Increasingly, our lives are being filled by interruptions – SMS messages, emails, calls, internet chat conversations, Twitter updates and RSS feeds, to name but a few. Things are only likely to get worse when your new robotic vacuum cleaner demands to have its bag changed and your car starts moaning at you to change its oil.

With all these noises and flashing lights constantly competing for our attention, it’s no wonder that many people get stressed by technology. So how can we aim to reduce this stress when designing software and devices?

Firstly, don’t ask unless you have to. If the decision is predictable, trivial or reversible, it’s not necessary to trouble the user – just do it and let the user change it if they notice something’s wrong.

If some action does need to be taken, present the message to the user in a non-stressful way. Beeps, pings and flashing lights are necessary when the user must take immediate action to avoid impending disaster – but they are so often misused.

Critically, the notification should be ignorable – not just that it is not so distracting as to completely derail the user’s train of thought, but also that there’s no real penalty to ignoring it. Usually this means that the message must be repeated at an appropriate interval. Of course, the “appropriate interval” is not easy to define and will be affected by the user’s preferences and situation. This is an opportunity for creative UI design and perhaps a little Artificial Intelligence.

Let’s take the example of text messages. When my phone receives an SMS, it vibrates and makes a sound. If I’m in the middle of something, I’ll ignore it. If I’m in the middle of a conversation, I’ll ignore it but the conversation will often be interrupted anyway when the my interlocutor kindly points out that I received a message. The trouble is that by the time I’ve done what I’m doing, I’ve often forgotten I received a message and I only re-discover it some hours later when I happen to use my phone.

How could this type of interaction be redesigned to be more ignorable? First, my phone should know if it’s in my pocket or not – in my case, just detecting if it’s dark would do the trick. If it’s in my pocket, it should only vibrate. If I ignore the message, it should vibrate again every few minutes. If this is distracting, I can give the phone a sharp tap and it won’t bother me again for another 15 minutes. Even if I read the message, I should be able to indicate that I will reply later, in which case it should periodically remind me to do that.

It might seem that having more notifications would increase stress, not reduce it – but I’d argue that by making the notifications gentle and ignorable, the fact that I’m not forced to pay attention significantly reduces their annoyingness.

Designing a product to be ignored is a distinctly unsatisfying goal, but it’s one that I think is becoming increasingly important. To preserve our sanity in an increasingly computerised, networked world, both software and intelligent devices need to be designed to disappear.

This post was inspired by my hob.  In our era of global telecommunications and private space travel, you’d think somebody could design a machine to simmer a pan of water without it boiling over.

Music is art, not a utility

Wednesday, November 8th, 2006

The idea of “music like water” assumes that the lowering cost of distribution and widespread copying of digital music will force record companies to offer all of their content under some sort of low-flat-fee scheme. It is a concept that seems to have grown in popularity recently, but, like so many, Gerd Leonhard seems to have ignored history – and missed the point.

For technical reasons, the written word has been widespread on the Internet for much longer than any other form of media. Consequently, it would perhaps be fair to assume that is more mature – and perhaps provides some indicator of what is to come with images, sound and video.

The “music like water” makes the same mistake as looking at the Internet and seeing it as a cheap way to distribute newspapers. They’re not wrong – but it hardly describes the trend towards widespread publishing through blogs, forums, personal websites, social networking sites and so on.

I’d argue that we’re starting to see the same thing with music – and in a limited way, YouTube is showing how it can happen with video too. Those predicting that the internet will just make music so cheap that it’s almost free are missing the point and ignoring the real revolution that’s just starting to happen. Again.

This was also posted to the New Music Strategies forum.

Bring back infrared…

Tuesday, November 7th, 2006

I think manufacturers should start putting infrared capabilities back into mobile phones. “But infrared is crap, you have to keep both the devices pointing at each other in order to transfer data!”. Exactly. So maybe just swap Bluetooth IDs over infrared, then automatically offer your business card to anyone you successfully connect with. Because at the moment nobody actually uses Bluetooth to swap contact details – it takes much longer to scan for the device (if they’ve even got Bluetooth enabled), accept the transfer, etc. than to just tell them your number and get them to give you a dropped call. Which is a shame, because I include almost all my contact details (website, MSN, etc.) in my business card, which makes in much easier for them to get in touch – and hopefully makes it more likely that they will. Okay, so maybe girls never call me for other reasons, but you take my point.

Attaching a name (or even better, image) to a Bluetooth ID is also useful, as your phone could provide a useful alert when they are in the vicinity.

Oh, and if somebody from Nokia is reading, I’d love to work for you.

Dancing about architecture – why social networks are ill-suited to music discovery

Wednesday, June 14th, 2006

Music is an emotional experience. Raving about the flutter of John Coltrane’s saxophone reed is like praising the paintbrush strokes on the Mona Lisa – even if you have such unusual powers of musical analysis, it doesn’t really capture the essence of the work. As Steve Martin eloquently put it, “talking about music is like dancing about architecture.”

You know the best way to describe music? Don’t. Just give them a copy and let them make their own mind up. This is becoming steadily easier, thanks to advancing technology. Gone are the days of making a tape; just burn them a CD, email them an Mp3 or even just tell them the title and let them find it on a filesharing network. Okay, so there’s the small issue of copyright law, but that seems quite a distant problem compared to that of being able to share your emotion.

Despite the growing ease of sharing music, it’s still quite hard to find which friends share your musical taste, because everyone is so different. Effective music recommendation involves encountering someone who enjoys at least some subset of your musical tastes, remembering what they like, and then remembering to tell them whenever you encounter something they might like. It’s quite a difficult cognitive challenge, and unless you do it regularly, you’re unlikely to do it very effectively.

Online services that assist this process are great, but there has to be something to do with that information in order to make it useful. Like, for example, being able to hear tracks that these people like, but you haven’t heard. Guess what? That’s called collaborative filtering, and that’s exactly how most recommendation services services work, like Last.fm‘s Recommendation Radio.

Online “social networking” is the flavour of the day. Email, IM, blogs and social networking tools (like the ubiquitous MySpace) are becoming very popular, because they support and extend existing social networks. But the social network for music is ineffectual due to the communication barriers outlined above, and as such, a social networking tool for music deserves to be as sucessful as an architecural dance society.